Domestic politics and international relations are often inextricably interlinked. Domestic issuesprovide a crucial context within which many countries formulate their foreign policies. The criticality of its influence over foreign policy is nowhere else more visible than in South Asia, particularly India’s relations with its neighbours. Domestic politics has often shaped the trajectory of India’s short term relations with some of its neighbours, and has often forced different governments to take different stands on the same issue.
In the past India has locked horns with Bangladesh over the issue of Rohingya Muslims migratingfrom Myanmar to Bangladesh and India. Last year, India had given its full backing to the internationally-isolated Myanmar government on the Rohingya crisis, putting the Sheikh Hasina government in an impossible situation. Bangladesh has faced the political and security fallout of the largest influx of refugees ever since its independence. Bangladesh high commissioner to India, Syed Muazzem Ali, later, met with Indian foreign secretary S. Jaishankarspecifically to raise the Rohingya issue. India since then has moderated its stand on the issue of Rohingya, extending full support to Bangladesh’s efforts for resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis, including early repatriation of the displaced people to Myanmar; but not before infuriating some of its friends in Bangladesh.
However, the Rohingya is issue is not the only major bone of contention between India and Bangladesh. The issue of illegal migrants from Bangladesh has been of paramount importance for India both for its domestic politics and its foreign policy. The increasing volume of Bangladeshi Muslim population presents a major challenge to India’s pursuit of a substantial foreign and security policy.
The release of the final draft of theNational Register of Citizens (NRC)on July 30, 2018, by the state of Assam has effectively excluded nearly 4 million forcing them to prove their Indian nationality.The application process for inclusion in India’s national register started in 2015. Of the 32.9 million applicants, the names of 28.9 million have been approved and included in the draft. It is reported that more than 4 million who have been left out can file appeals by 30 September and prove their Indian nationality by providing documents – until then, no one will be declared an illegal migrant. The list includes the names of all those who can prove they came to the state before 24 March 1971 – the day before Bangladesh declared independence. In February 2018, it was widely reported that Bangladesh may not accept deportation of individuals from Assam on the grounds that they are illegal immigrants. “There was no border fence between Assam and Bangladesh because the area was inaccessible. So, it is not possible for Bangladeshis to settle in that region in Assam,” Bangladesh’s information minister HasanulHaqInu told on the sidelines of a programme by the Institute of Conflict, Law and Development studies. Therefore what appears to be an internal issue at the provincial level, has all the elements to snow ball into bigger foreign policy issue for India, if the Bangladesh government rejects any future appeal to deport these immigrants. The issue has already turned volatile and could trigger a crisis like that facing the Rohingya in Myanmar.“If most citizens don’t get to retain their citizenship in Assam, we are looking at a huge mass of stateless persons like in Myanmar’s Rakhine province. It would end up in a similar humanitarian crisis,” said Anita Sengupta, head of the Calcutta Research Group.
In 2019, both India and Bangladesh will be voting for General Election, and the respective countries feature prominently in their domestic political circuit. In India, right wing BJP party, which formed Government in 2014, has since long raised the issue of Bangladeshi influxin the North East region. In its plan to expand its footprints in the northeast region, it has used the issue of Bangladeshi as a political agenda. Similarly in Bangladesh, the ruling Awami League is still concerned over its arch-rival BNP stand on these issues. The BNP, under Khalida Zia has been strongly opposing India’s involvement in Bangladesh, and has often portrayed Sheikh Hasina as pro-India.
In the recent years, Bangladesh has been able to maintain consistency in its relations with India. Despite intensified competition between India and China, Indian ties with Bangladesh are rapidly growing and new emphasis is on defence cooperation, as also progress in the areas of road, rail, water and energy, connectivity continues. Bangladesh, have resolved sensitive outstanding issues of Land Boundary Agreement and the Petra pole, Integrated Check Post was inaugurated in July 2016..Therefore, the issue of illegal migrants might test the endurance of the relationship between the two countries , considering the fact that during the election period, the issue will be dominant political point to contest for. Equally, both Indian Prime Minister and Bangladeshi Prime Minister would not want to spoil the current state of bilateral relations, at the same time not appearing weak against each other. Therefore it is incumbent upon the respective governments to handle the issue with political acumen at domestic level and diplomatic finesse at foreign policy level. This is how the overwhelming negative impact of a domestic political issue should be handled in order to avoid the spiraling and escalation of the issue into some major bottleneck.
End Notes
Mitra, Devirupa. “Exclusive: Public Anger Brews in Bangladesh Over India's Stance on Rohingya Crisis.” The Wire, The Wire, 10 Sept. 2017, https://thewire.in/diplomacy/bangaldesh-rohingya-crisis-myanmar-india
Khan, Shehab. “India Effectively Strips 4 Million People of Their Citizenship.” The Independent, Independent Digital News and Media, 30 July 2018, www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/india-assam-register-citizens-bangladesh-voting-rolls-a8469521.html.
“If No Bangladeshi Settlement in Assam, No Question of Deportation: Bangladesh Minister.” The Economic Times, Economic Times, 21 Feb. 2018, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/if-no-bangladeshi-settlement-in-assam-no-question-of-deportation-bangladesh-minister/articleshow/63007354.cms
Bhaumik, Subir. “In India's Assam, a Rohingya-like Refugee Crisis in the Making.”South China Morning Post, South China Morning Post, 24 Mar. 2018, www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2138246/indias-assam-rohingya-refugee-crisis-making.
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